Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike

JUST IN: Traders now price a better than 92% chance the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates this week, with a more than 75% chance of another increase in December.

Ninety-two percent. That's how sure traders are the Fed hikes rates this week.

And Chairman Kevin Warsh has a math problem before Wednesday's vote. The last meeting split nine to three in favour of holding, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari all wanting a hike. So Warsh needs four people to change their minds in two months. Christopher Waller, the most-watched vote in the room, said earlier this month he'd rather wait. His question was simple, what does one more meeting of patience actually cost you?

Here's the awkward part. Goldman Sachs says there's no strong economic case for hiking at all, that this inflation is tariffs and the Iran oil shock, one-time stuff that fades. And then Goldman changed its own call to a hike anyway. Because as Bill Dudley put it, if Warsh does nothing now, it's all talk, no action, and his credibility goes with it.

So the market has already voted. Wednesday we find out if the committee agrees.

This is Sara White, reporting for HIT.