Lula Defeats Bolsonaro for Brazil Presidency, in Blow to Latin America’s Right

BREAKING: Lula wins Brazil's presidency for a historic fourth term, defeating far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.79% of the vote after prediction markets had favored Bolsonaro.

Lula just won Brazil a fourth time, and the prediction markets got it wrong.

The final count gives him 51.79 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro, the son carrying the family banner after his father. A tight race, under two points of daylight, but enough. At eighty one years old, Lula adds a fourth presidential term to a career that already includes a stint in prison and the biggest political comeback in Latin American history.

For the Bolsonaro movement, this stings twice. They lost the palace, and they lost it after the betting crowd had them ahead. Markets priced a right wing restoration across the region, and Brazilian voters quietly declined.

Here's the part I can't get over. Traders with real money on the line favored Bolsonaro right up to the count. The oldest lesson in this business, the market is a forecast, not a promise. Two hundred million Brazilians just reminded everyone who actually settles the trade.

This is Liu Yang, reporting for HIT.